The Pulse: Kelowna Market Review September 2018

Kelowna and the Central Okanagan Valley are experiencing an ongoing slowing of the real estate market, mind you while also experiencing a slowing of the slowing. Sales were down 12.7% from last month which is typical for the time of year, and down just 18.75% compared to September of 2017.  In contrast, May which was the month with the most recorded sales this year (504 residential sales), sales dropped by 31.14% versus May of 2017. Supply of residential properties available to purchasers stayed flat which was a sharp contrast to the increasing inventory we saw earlier in the year; the largest increase saw inventory jump 15.28% this past May. Last month we officially broke a 10-year trend with inventory reaching a peak in August and holding strong in September. Since 2008, inventory peaked consistently in July of every year with the exception of 2016 which peaked 2 months earlier in May, and 2015 and 2017 which peaked a month earlier in June. This may not have any significance, however, it could be a sign of homeowners wanting to get their home on the market before a potential persistent flattening or slight decline in prices sets in. Inventory will be a key statistic to watch this fall.

Central Okanagan Average Price for Residential Properties (All)

Average Price for Residential Properties is a performance indicator that speaks to purchaser confidence in the market. This figure is an average across all residential categories including: single detached homes, duplexes, condominiums, townhouses, and mobile homes.

The overall residential market data from the past month shows we are currently holding 7.10 months of inventory. This compares to 4.29 months of inventory in September 2017. This means overall it is a buyer’s market, however, with variances between neighbourhoods, it is more important than ever (in recent years) to drill down on the local market prior to listing your home for sale or making an offer to purchase. The average valuation of residential properties increased by a hair, up to 2.39% to $581,818. This is also an increase of 3.77% compared to September 2017. The speed at which the market is moving is still strong with the average time to sell at 58 days. In comparison, this time last year we were at 53 days or about a week shorter.

For single family homes, nearly all neighbourhoods are experiencing a buyer’s market. There were however 5 neighbourhoods where there is still a seller’s market for residential homes. The smaller communities of Lake Country and Peachland as well as rural neighbourhoods like Joe Rich and Fintry are all experiencing the strongest buyer’s markets for residential homes but there are some neighbouhoods in Kelowna and West Kelowna that offer a better than elsewhere opportunity for buyers as well.

Seller’s Market Neighbourhoods (Single Family Home)
Ellison (Kelowna): 2.17 MOI
Glenrosa (Peachland): 2.92 MOI
Dilworth Mountain (Kelowna): 3.71 MOI
Rutland (Kelowna): 4.38 MOI
Smith Creek (West Kelowna): 4.57 MOI

Buyer’s Market Neighbourhoods (Single Family Home)
Shannon Lake (West Kelowna): 8.67 MOI
Upper Mission (Kelowna): 9.9 MOI
Kelowna North / University District : 10.67 MOI
Mission Hill (West Kelowna): 12.36 MOI
Kettle Valley (Kelowna): 15.67 MOI

SEPTEMBER 2018 - Months of Inventory by Neighbourhood

Months of Inventory is a performance indicator that represents the ratio of active listings to sales in the past month, expressed in terms of how long those currently active listings would supply future demand if the rate of that demand were to continue (Ex. There are 100 home currently listed for sale and in the last month 20 homes sold. 20 homes could be sold each month for the next 5 months without new listings coming on. Therefore, the MOI is 5.)

All data is from OMREB/MLS® System. Interpretations of the data is done with the utmost care and attention, however, errors and omissions may apply. Selling and purchasing real estate comes with risk and should be discussed in depth with your real estate agent of choice.